New York projects to amass a US-high $1.7 billion in total gross gaming revenue from sports betting in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley.
From Jan. 8 launch through May 15, NY online sportsbooks have amassed $6.9 billion in handle, $493.1 million in total GGR and $251.5 million in tax revenue.
At this pace, New York could hit $1 billion in total revenue in 2022. So $1.7 billion seems like a reasonable projection three years from now.
Future legislative efforts could add to NY state coffers
Of course, the landscape in the Empire State could look a lot different by then.
New York currently has eight active online sportsbook operators, with Bally Bet set to launch before the start of July.
Lobbying and legislative efforts to increase the number of operators, thereby reducing the 51% tax rate, failed to gain any traction in NYS budget negotiations.
But those efforts could be revisited again down the road. Assemb. Gary Pretlow and Sen. Joe Addabbo had hoped to bring NY from nine apps to no fewer than 14 by Jan. 31, 2023 and then no fewer than 16 by Jan. 31, 2024. That would lower the tax rate from 51% to 35% and then 25% over a two-year span.
Operators have repeatedly complained about long-term profitability at the 51% tax rate. But the state remains content to keep adding to its coffers. In fact, by the end of May, New York expects to generate more tax revenue than any other state regardless of launch date.
New York not just settling for sports betting
The acceleration of three downstate NY casino licenses could bring at least $1.5 billion in additional fees to the state. And that could bring NY up to seven retail sportsbooks at commercial casinos, including the existing ones at Rivers, Resorts World Catskills, del Lago and Tioga Downs.
The bill, which failed to gain any traction in this budget session, projected that NY would receive an estimated $475 million in annual tax revenue, plus $150 million in one-time licensing fees for casinos, operators and independent contracts looking to conduct business in the state.