Four weeks into the NFL season, and one thing is an absolute certain:
No given game is an absolute certainty.
Simply look at Sunday afternoon’s matchup between the New York Jets and the visiting Denver Broncos. Of the 16 games in Week 4, only one featured a larger point spread than the 8.5 points favoring the Jets.
Rain and sloppy play, however, allowed the Broncos – whose quarterback at -7 yards passing at the half – to record an unforeseeable 10-9 victory at MetLife Stadium.
It was the latest example of unpredictability and upsets that have been highly featured over the first few weeks of the season, one that has led to higher revenue totals for sportsbooks in New York.
Unpredictability abounds in early NFL weeks
Consider how the 2024 season began.
In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals opened up their schedule against what many perceived as an underwhelming New England Patriots team. At home, no less. Many sportsbooks put the Cincy spread at 7.5 points, the largest of opening week.
Yet New England stifled the Bengals, jumping out to a 13-0 lead and holding on for a 16-10 victory over a team that had the third-best NFL betting odds heading into the season.
That set the table for a wild first few weeks of the NFL schedule.
Including the Patriots, underdog teams facing a point spread of at 5.5 points or more have gone 18-4 against the spread through Sunday, meaning that 18 of 22 teams covered the pregame line. What’s more, 11 of those teams won outright.
That includes a Week 3 lineup that saw underdogs of at least 5.5 points put together a 5-1 record both ATS and outright, including the New York Giants pulling out a 21-15 win at the Cleveland Browns despite facing a 6.5-point line that was tied for the second-largest of the week.
| Team | Line | Opponent | Result | Cover? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | +6.5 (Wk 1) | Buffalo Bills | L 34-28 | Y |
| New England Patriots | +7.5 (Wk 1) | Cincinnati Bengals | W 16-10 | Y |
| Denver Broncos | +6.5 (Wk 1) | Seattle Seahawks | L 26-20 | Y |
| Los Angeles Rams | +5.5 (Wk 1) | Detroit Lions | L 26-20 | N |
| New Orleans Saints | +6.5 (Wk 2) | Dallas Cowboys | W 44-19 | Y |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +7.5 (Wk 2) | Detroit Lions | W 20-16 | Y |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +8.5 (Wk 2) | Baltimore Ravens | W 26-23 | Y |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +6.5 (Wk 2) | Kansas City Chiefs | L 26-25 | Y |
| Chicago Bears | +6.5 (Wk 2) | Houston Texans | L 19-13 | Y |
| Atlanta Falcons | +5.5 (Wk 2) | Philadelphia Eagles | W 22-21 | Y |
| New England Patriots | +6.5 (Wk 3) | New York Jets | L 24-3 | N |
| New York Giants | +6.5 (Wk 3) | Cleveland Browns | W 21-15 | Y |
| Denver Broncos | +5.5 (Wk 3) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 26-7 | Y |
| Carolina Panthers | +5.5 (Wk 3) | Las Vegas Raiders | W 36-22 | Y |
| Los Angeles Rams | +6.5 (Wk 3) | San Francisco 49ers | W 27-24 | Y |
| Washington Commanders | +7.5 (Wk 3) | Cincinnati Bengals | W 38-33 | Y |
| New York Giants | +5.5 (Wk 4) | Dallas Cowboys | L 20-15 | Y |
| Denver Broncos | +8.5 (Wk 4) | New York Jets | W 10-9 | Y |
| Carolina Panthers | +5.5 (Wk 4) | Cincinnati Bengals | L 34-24 | N |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +5.5 (Wk 4) | Houston Texans | L 24-20 | Y |
| New England Patriots | +10.5 (Wk 4) | San Francisco 49ers | L 30-13 | N |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +7.5 (Wk 4) | Kansas City Chiefs | L 17-10 | Y |
| TOTAL | AVG: +6.7 | 11-11 | 18-4 |
NY sportsbooks capitalizing on early upsets
No state with legal sports betting has been as lucrative as New York, which has seen operators combine for over $4.3 billion in NY sports betting revenue since launching in January 2022.
It seems sportsbooks are setting industry records with each passing week and month, a trend that, unsurprisingly, continued into the 2024 NFL season.
Through the first three weeks of the schedule, NY sportsbooks accepted over $1.4 billion in bets, a 15% increase from the same time in 2023. But how much sportsbooks are profiting from bettors is at an all-time high for the state.
At more than $145 million in gross gaming revenue, New York sportsbooks have far surpassed the industry’s total from 2023 – by nearly 20%.
The week ending Sept. 15 was especially successful for operators, with the $69.2 million in revenue representing the state’s second-highest weekly total ever.
Whether a coincidence or not, want to know what that week featured?
Six NFL teams facing point spreads of at least 5.5 points. All six covering the spread. Four won outright.
