robinhood prediction markets (2026)
Robinhood prediction markets let you buy and sell event contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events, from which team wins a game to what the Fed decides at its next meeting. These aren’t bets in the sportsbook sense. They’re derivatives contracts, offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, that settle at $1 if you’re right and $0 if you’re wrong, and you can trade in and out of a position before it settles.
What Robinhood prediction markets actually are
Robinhood offers event contracts through its membership with exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Each contract asks a yes-or-no question about a future event: will the Chiefs win Sunday’s game, will the Fed cut rates in December, will it rain more than an inch in Miami this week. You take the Yes side or the No side.
The contract price, always between $0.01 and $0.99, reflects the market’s implied probability that the event happens. A contract trading at $0.72 implies traders think there’s roughly a 72% chance of that outcome. Prices move as people buy and sell, the same way a stock price moves with order flow, rather than being set by a bookmaker.
How settlement works
If the event resolves in your favor, your contract pays out $1 per share. If it doesn’t, the contract is worth $0. Between now and settlement, you can close your position at whatever the current market price is, so you don’t have to hold until the event actually happens.
Categories available
Robinhood’s event contracts span several categories:
- Sports (game outcomes, season awards, matchups)
- Politics (elections, confirmations, policy decisions)
- Economics and Fed policy (rate decisions, inflation prints)
- Weather (temperature thresholds, storm outcomes)
- Commodities
- Entertainment and culture
The lineup changes as events resolve and new ones open, so what’s tradable in a given week depends on what’s currently on the calendar.
How pricing and probability work
Yes and No prices on the same contract don’t always add up to exactly $1. That gap comes from the bid-ask spread and available liquidity at any given moment, similar to how a stock’s bid and ask aren’t identical. If Yes is trading at $0.65 and No at $0.32, that 3-cent gap reflects the spread traders are willing to accept, not a pricing error.
Because prices are driven by order flow rather than a set line, they can move fast around news. A late injury report, a poll release, or a weather update can shift a contract’s price within minutes.
Fees and commissions
Robinhood charges a commission on event contracts calculated with a probability-weighted formula rather than a flat per-contract fee:
Commission = k × p × (1 − p) × c
- k = a tier-based constant: 10% for standard accounts, 5% for Robinhood Gold subscribers
- p = the contract price as a decimal (a $0.65 contract is 0.65)
- c = number of contracts traded
Because of the p × (1 − p) term, commissions are lowest on high-conviction contracts near $0.01 or $0.99 and highest on contracts priced near $0.50, where uncertainty is greatest. Robinhood rounds up to the nearest cent, with a maximum commission of $0.01 per contract.
On top of Robinhood’s commission, the exchange itself typically charges a separate fee, up to about $0.01 per contract, applied on both the opening and closing trade. Both fees show up in your account statement under total fees and commissions.
Example calculation
Say you buy 100 Yes contracts at $0.90 each, with an exchange fee of $0.01 per contract:
- With Gold: commission = 5% × 0.90 × 0.10 × 100 = $0.45, for a total cost of $91.45
- Without Gold: commission = 10% × 0.90 × 0.10 × 100 = $0.90, for a total cost of $91.90
At a contract price near the middle of the range, say $0.50, the commission percentage bites hardest relative to the payout spread, since p × (1 − p) peaks at 0.25 when p = 0.5. Trading contracts closer to $0.10 or $0.90 keeps the commission smaller as a share of your position.
Who can trade event contracts on Robinhood
To open positions in Robinhood’s prediction markets, you need an approved Robinhood Derivatives account and must meet these requirements:
- Be at least 18 years old
- Hold an individual Robinhood brokerage account
- Be a US resident
- Live in a state where event contracts are permitted (availability varies by state, and some states currently exclude certain contract types)
Approval for a Derivatives account isn’t automatic. Robinhood reviews your application before granting access, similar to options trading approval.
How to get started
- Open or log into your Robinhood brokerage account
- Apply for a Robinhood Derivatives account through the app’s prediction markets section
- Wait for approval, which typically involves a short questionnaire about your trading experience
- Browse contracts by category and review the current Yes/No pricing
- Place a buy order on the side you think will happen, sized in number of contracts
- Monitor the position, and sell before expiration if you want to lock in a gain or cut a loss rather than waiting for settlement
Risks to understand before trading
Event contracts settle at $0 or $1, so a wrong call means losing your full stake in that contract, not a partial loss. Prices can swing sharply on breaking news, and low-liquidity contracts can have wide spreads that make entering or exiting a position more expensive than the quoted price suggests.
The CFTC regulates these markets as derivatives, but that doesn’t reduce the underlying risk of predicting an uncertain outcome. Robinhood’s own materials note that futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and isn’t appropriate for everyone.
Prediction markets vs. sports betting
The mechanics look similar to placing a wager, but the structure differs. Sportsbooks set odds and take the other side of your bet, building in a house edge. Robinhood’s event contracts trade between users on an exchange, with prices set by supply and demand rather than a bookmaker’s line, and Robinhood earns its revenue through the commission formula rather than a built-in spread on the odds themselves.
Before placing a trade, check the current bid-ask spread on the specific contract and calculate the commission at that price point using the formula above, since the cost of trading varies meaningfully depending on how close the contract is to $0.50.
