best prediction markets (2026)
The best prediction markets right now for US traders are Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and Robinhood’s event contracts, followed by newer entrants like FanDuel Predicts. Each operates under different rules for regulation, market selection, and fees, and the right one depends on whether you care most about sports contracts, political and cultural events, or raw trading volume.
What counts as a prediction market
A prediction market lets people buy and sell contracts tied to a specific future outcome, such as whether the Fed cuts rates in a given month or which team wins a championship. Contracts settle at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t, and the price in between reflects what traders collectively think the odds are. Unlike a traditional sportsbook, you’re not betting against the house. You’re trading against other users, and the platform earns money through transaction fees rather than by setting odds against you.
In the US, the platforms operating legally at scale are regulated as designated contract markets by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same federal agency that oversees commodity and derivatives exchanges. That regulatory status is what separates Kalshi, Polymarket’s US arm, and similar platforms from offshore betting sites.
Top prediction markets compared
Kalshi
Kalshi launched in 2021 as the first CFTC-regulated exchange built specifically for event contracts. Its market list spans sports, politics, weather, economic indicators (like CPI and jobs reports), and pop culture events. Kalshi runs on a peer-to-peer order book, so pricing moves in real time based on actual trades rather than a set line.
Kalshi tends to have the deepest liquidity of any US prediction market, particularly on political and macro contracts, which makes it easier to enter and exit positions without moving the price much. Sports markets are available too, though prop offerings are less granular than what you’d find on a dedicated sportsbook, with some player-performance markets banded into wider ranges rather than exact numbers.
Polymarket
Polymarket built its reputation on crypto rails, using USDC for deposits and settlement, and became known for having some of the largest and fastest-moving markets on elections and major news events. After securing CFTC clearance, Polymarket began rolling out a regulated US product, separate from its original offshore exchange.
Polymarket’s strength is breadth and speed on news-driven events. Prices there often shift within minutes of a headline, and the platform draws heavy volume during elections and major geopolitical developments. The tradeoff for US users is that access has rolled out gradually rather than all at once, so availability by state and market type can vary.
Novig
Novig is a peer-to-peer exchange focused almost entirely on sports. Instead of paying a sportsbook’s built-in margin (the vig), users trade contracts directly against each other on moneylines, spreads, and player props across the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC, and soccer. That structure generally means better prices on straightforward markets, though liquidity on less popular games or niche props can be thinner than on Kalshi.
Robinhood and FanDuel Predicts
Robinhood added event contracts through a partnership model, giving existing brokerage users a way to trade on outcomes like elections and economic data without leaving the Robinhood app. FanDuel Predicts and similar sportsbook-branded prediction products are newer entrants aimed at users who already have accounts on those platforms and want event contracts alongside traditional betting or fantasy products. These are worth watching but generally have narrower market menus than Kalshi or Polymarket so far.
How to pick the right platform
Match the platform to what you actually want to trade rather than picking based on sign-up offers alone.
- Sports-heavy traders: Novig for peer-to-peer sports pricing, or Kalshi if you also want political and economic markets in the same account.
- Politics and news events: Kalshi and Polymarket both carry deep markets here, with Polymarket often showing faster price movement on breaking news.
- Economic data traders: Kalshi’s CPI, jobs, and Fed rate contracts are among the most established in this category.
- Existing brokerage or sportsbook users: Robinhood or FanDuel Predicts if you’d rather trade event contracts inside an app you already use daily.
Fees and liquidity
Trading fees on these platforms are usually charged per contract rather than as a flat commission, and the exact rate depends on the market type and how close the price sits to 50 cents. Deposits and withdrawals via ACH are typically free, while instant transfers or card funding can carry a fee. Before committing real money, check a platform’s fee schedule directly, since these rates get adjusted periodically.
Liquidity matters as much as fees. A market with wide bid-ask spreads and few open contracts can cost you more in slippage than a slightly higher fee elsewhere. High-profile markets, like a presidential election or a Super Bowl outcome, usually have tight spreads on any major platform. Niche markets, such as a specific player’s season stat line or a regional weather event, can have thin order books even on the biggest exchanges.
Is trading on prediction markets legal
Trading on CFTC-regulated exchanges like Kalshi is legal for eligible US residents in most states, since these contracts fall under federal commodities law rather than state gambling statutes. That said, some states have pushed back on sports-related contracts specifically, and platforms maintain lists of excluded states or restricted market categories that change as legal challenges play out. Check a platform’s current state availability page before assuming you can trade every market type from your location.
Offshore platforms that never sought CFTC approval operate in a legal gray area for US residents and carry more risk around fund withdrawals and dispute resolution. Sticking to CFTC-regulated exchanges avoids that uncertainty.
Getting started
Open an account on one or two platforms that match your interests, verify your identity (required under CFTC rules), and start with a small trade on a market you understand well, like a game outcome or an economic release you follow closely. Watch how the price moves as new information comes in before committing larger amounts, since order books on these exchanges behave differently from fixed-odds betting lines.
