The Super Bowl will indeed be the big game in New York, as PlayNY projections show that the NY sports betting industry could take in over $150 million in bets during the Feb. 13 championship.
That total ranks second among all jurisdictions with legalized betting, only Nevada topping the number.
“New York might be the number one market in the country, but Nevada still has at least one more year atop the Super Bowl betting throne,” said Eric Ramsey, lead market analyst for PlayNY. “There are a lot of unknowns, though, and it’s certainly possible that New York could steal the crown this year (though the Bills’ loss in the divisional round obviously won’t help).”
Estimates herein reflect several market factors from past years in other states. New York did not provide Super Bowl-specific numbers from a year ago. Anything within 10% of projected numbers would fall in line with PlayNY expectations.
Comparing NY sports betting with other states
All told, 34 jurisdictions with legal sports betting expect to combine for $1.1 billion in handle for Super Bowl LVII. The game will feature the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadephia Eagles.
At the top of the list, Nevada projects to accept $176.2 million in Super Bowl betting handle, followed by New York at $151.5 million.
Those two states far and away pace the field, with New Jersey ($115.5 million), Illinois ($86.2 million) and newly launched Ohio ($82.6 million) projected to round out the top five.
“This outlook generally reflects the state of these markets as we begin 2023, with Ohio projected to crack the top five within its first 45 days of legal operation,” Ramsey said. “Perhaps the most notable number of the bunch belongs to New Jersey, which figures to suffer a significant setback for this year’s Super Bowl. We expect it to drop back down to a level roughly equal to its performance in 2021, almost a year prior to — and largely because of — New York’s launch.”
Remembering 2022 Super Bowl betting in 2022
While incredible to think online sports betting in New York is already a year old, the industry heads into its second Super Bowl weekend as the nation’s leader in regulated wagering.
In 2022, the NFL championship was the need-to-launch-by date. And it proved to be the launchpad from which NY sports betting took off.
The state did not release Super Bowl-specific data a year ago, as other jurisdictions typically do. That said, the week of Feb. 13, 2022, featured $472.1 million in handle. Based on per-capita comparison with other jurisdictions, PlayNY estimated that betting in New York totaled between $140 million and $160 million on Super Bowl Sunday.
It’s likely New York did not exceed Nevada’s $179.8 million last year and, perhaps, hovered more around the New Jersey total of $143.7 million.
To see where 2023 stands so far, NY sportsbooks have reported $1.3 billion through three full weeks of the new year, just off the pace of $1.5 billion through the first three full weeks of 2022.
Would Buffalo Bills betting have affected Super Bowl projections?
For the second straight season, the Buffalo Bills entered the season with lofty expectations of bringing home the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in franchise history.
After appearing in the AFC Championship in January 2021, Buffalo appeared poised to do just that. But in each of the next two seasons, including this year, the Bills fell in the AFC Divisional playoffs.
Hypothetically, though, let’s say the Bills did play well enough to advance to the 2023 Super Bowl. Would that have affected PlayNY projections? Short answer: Not really. Certainly, Bills Mafia is strong and boisterous. But that fandom, compared with other teams in the league and especially in the area, pales in comparison.
The New York Giants would likely make more of an impact on projections, what with more of a statewide and regional following. But even then, unless several bets unprecedented in size came through, the needle likely would not move much.
Say, though, there was a rematch of Super Bowl XXV, pitting the Bills against the Giants. In this case, the NY sports betting expectation might increase. But it’s important to remember, as alluded to above, most bettors who wager on specific, isolated events tend to do so in comparably modest amounts. So while local betting interest might spike, the overall financial impact would similarly be relatively small.