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A new analysis from _Past The Wire_ argues that the biggest edge for bettors may be understanding the system around them, not just the next wager. For New York readers, the clearest takeaway is a responsible gambling one: as operators and betting platforms get more sophisticated, players need to be more disciplined about price, promotions, and when not to bet at all.
The piece examines how sportsbooks, prediction markets, and pari-mutuel wagering each work differently, but all require players to understand the rules before assuming they have an advantage.
Sportsbooks, promotions, and customer data
The article points to reporting on DraftKings and FanDuel to show how closely major operators can study customer behavior. It cites a _New York Times_ investigation that said DraftKings used customer data and AI to identify bettors who were more likely to respond to promotions and lose more. According to the article, former DraftKings analyst Jayden Butts described testing a model that assigned customers an internal score called “elasticity.” The piece also notes that DraftKings disputed aspects of that reporting and said the promotional testing was preliminary and inconclusive.
It also references CBS News reporting on FanDuel and allegations that customer data could be used to identify declining betting activity and encourage customers to return. FanDuel told CBS it invested $158 million in responsible gaming and removed 5,700 customers because of gambling behavior during the previous year.
For players, the practical point is straightforward: promotions and retention efforts are part of the business model, and account limits or restrictions may also apply to winning bettors.
Prediction markets and horse racing follow different rules
The article argues that prediction markets should not be viewed as simple substitutes for sportsbooks. In that model, exchanges generally earn money from transaction-related fees rather than from an individual customer losing a bet. But the piece says that does not remove sharp competition; it changes where it appears.
It also notes that the legal fight over prediction markets reaches beyond sportsbooks, involving the Commodity Exchange Act, federal commodities regulation, state gambling laws, and tribal gaming rights. The Supreme Court has been asked to review a dispute involving Kalshi and New Jersey.
On horse racing, the article returns to the pari-mutuel model, where the track takes a percentage and the rest of the pool is paid to winning tickets. It says about $11.03 billion was wagered on US Thoroughbred racing in 2025, down from $11.27 billion a year earlier, according to Equibase. By comparison, the American Gaming Association said legal US sports betting handle reached $166.94 billion in 2025.
What New York players should take from it
The article’s core message is not that one betting product is automatically better than another. It is that players should understand how each market works, how operators make money, and when there is no value in making a wager.
That is especially relevant as gambling products keep evolving and legal questions around prediction markets continue to develop. For New York players, the most useful rule may be the simplest one quoted in the piece: “Sometimes the best bet is no bet.” If gambling stops being fun, help is available through problem gambling support resources.
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Source: As reported by pastthewire.com.
