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Kalshi offered better pricing than DraftKings and FanDuel on tracked NFL Week 1 moneyline and totals markets, according to a new note from Citizens JMP Securities. For players, that means the prediction market was cheaper on the specific markets analysts reviewed, even as it remained less competitive on combo-style bets once fees were factored in.
Citizens analysts Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin said they tracked 28 data points on Friday, Sept. 11. Their report put Kalshi’s implied pricing for Week 1 at 4.32%, compared with 4.44% for FanDuel and 4.51% for DraftKings.
Analysts say Kalshi narrowed — and reversed — last season’s pricing gap
The report said Kalshi’s implied vig was 3% lower than FanDuel’s and 4% lower than DraftKings’ across the sampled markets. That marks a change from last NFL season, when Citizens said Kalshi trailed both sportsbooks by 30 to 40 basis points.
Citizens previously found Kalshi ahead of DraftKings and FanDuel by 30 to 40 basis points during March Madness and the FIFA World Cup earlier this year. The analysts attributed the latest shift to rising trading volumes, deeper market participation, and stronger competition among liquidity providers.
Better on straight markets, weaker on combo bets after fees
The advantage did not extend to every market type. Citizens said Kalshi’s implied vig on combined favorite-and-over bets was 23.8% in Week 1, versus 22.0% at DraftKings and FanDuel before transaction fees.
The report also said Kalshi charged an average fee of $1.62 per 100 contracts across the tracked markets. That matters for bettors comparing not just headline prices, but total cost on more complex wagers.
What the report says about sportsbook competition
Citizens said prediction markets are not worsening cannibalization of regulated sportsbooks and may instead be pulling in players who otherwise would bet offshore. The analysts added that customer wallets appear to be splitting between prediction markets and regulated sportsbooks, suggesting the overall betting pool is growing rather than simply shifting away from licensed operators.
For FanDuel and DraftKings watchers, the takeaway is narrower than a broad market upset: Kalshi appears more competitive on some straight NFL markets, but not yet across the board. Citizens also said it expects regulated sportsbook handle to accelerate in the fourth quarter.
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Source: As reported by Erik Gibbs.
