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DraftKings shares are hovering near a three-year low after falling nearly 22% over the past month, even as management said betting volume improved at the start of NFL season.
The pressure appears tied less to core sportsbook demand than to uncertainty around how much DraftKings may spend on prediction markets, an area the company has said could require significantly more investment.
Investors focus on prediction market costs
According to the source report, DraftKings management told Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender that sports betting handle rose 15% in September. At the same time, turnover on DKeX, the company’s yes/no exchange, is running at 2.5 times its July level.
That growth has not calmed investor concerns. Chief Executive Jason Robins said DraftKings could make a much larger investment to attract prediction market customers, while Chief Financial Officer Alan Ellingson told Bender at G2E that event contract spending could stretch over two years.
Bender estimated prediction market investment could total $450 million to $500 million this year. A separate analysis from TIKR put the range lower, at $200 million to $300 million, and said more than 600,000 customers have tried DraftKings’ prediction product.
Revenue outlook holds, but margins remain in focus
DraftKings maintained its 2026 revenue forecast of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion. But Bender’s model assumes prediction market investment will weigh on profitability, with a 2026 EBITDA estimate of $532 million, down 14% from 2025.
The company’s second-quarter revenue fell 4.6% from a year earlier. Management attributed about $80 million of lost revenue to sports results that favored customers.
For New York readers, the immediate takeaway is that this is an operator strategy story rather than a direct change to sportsbook rules or player accounts. But because DraftKings is one of the state’s major mobile betting brands, its spending priorities in prediction markets are still worth watching as they could shape how the company allocates resources across its broader betting business.
What comes next
A prediction market case is expected to reach the Supreme Court as soon as next spring, according to Casino.org, making the legal backdrop another major variable for operators exploring the category.
DraftKings is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on Nov. 5. That update may offer a clearer picture of how management plans to balance sportsbook performance, prediction market expansion, and the cost of pursuing both.
If you bet in New York, this story is mainly one to monitor rather than act on. As always, gamble responsibly.
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Source: As reported by northeasttimes.com.
