New York usually treats a new tech trend like a suspicious package on the subway platform. For months the state was busy sending out “get out of town” letters to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. But the mood in Albany is shifting from hostility to reluctant acceptance.
Lawmakers have realized they cannot stop the future, so they are looking to build a very sturdy fence around it.
Sen. Jeremy Cooney (D) recently filed S8889 in an attempt to rein in prediction market (PM) companies operating in the Empire State. It broadly defines prediction markets and uses the phrase “including but not limited to” throughout.
If a PM platform wants to operate in New York, it will have to play by New York’s rules. It will need a state license and include extensive anti-money laundering programs.
To New York lawmakers, compliance is no longer an argument about federal rules.
The ORACLE Act says some things are not for sale
Assemblyman Clyde Vanel (D) is drawing an even harder line in the dirt with his ORACLE Act. His bill would ban any contracts involving individual sports performances or federal elections.
He also wants to outlaw markets on natural disasters and “death events.”
If passed, a trade that’s legal in Washington could be totally off-limits in Manhattan.
Torres takes on PMs at federal level
Even the feds aren’t left out. Last week, New York Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. This was a direct reaction to the “Maduro trade,” where an anonymous user turned $32,000 into $400K by predicting the US military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Torres wants PMs to be treated like Wall Street. If you are a government official with a secret, you should not be allowed to log onto an app and bet on it. Think of it as the Martha Stewart rule for the prediction age.
The Madison Square Garden irony
While regulators and lawmakers are busy fighting PM platforms, the New York Rangers recently signed a deal with Polymarket. It will be interesting to see how that partnership fares if and when New York sets new PM rules.
New York is trying to prove it is still the financial capital of the world by gingerly bringing this new animal into the fold. Whether they can tame it is the only prediction without a contract yet.
