How well will the Buffalo Bills do this NFL season? Obviously, it remains to be seen. But Sportradar provided potential – albeit hypothetical – insight.
Following 50,000 simulations with its AI-driven data technology, Sportradar predicts a 5% chance that the Bills will win their first Super Bowl.
The Sportradar predictive model compares well with sportsbooks, which have the Bills at roughly +1700 oods to win the next Super Bowl, via FanDuel. A 5% chance (according to AI) equates to 20-to-1 or +2000 expressed in American odds format.
After running its simulations, Sportradar, which provides technology and data solutions to clients the gaming industry, predicts that the Bills will win 9.5 games in the 2024 NFL season. FanDuel Sportsbook prices the Buffalo Bills betting odds at +134 on 0ver 10.5 Wins and -164 on Under 10.5 Wins.
Sportradar provides data to FanDuel as well as other sports betting companies not only in the New York sports betting market but across many other jurisdictions in the US, including DraftKings, Caesars, and ESPN BET.
Comparing AI predictive models to FanDuel futures odds
AI sees the Chiefs as the “most likely team to be crowned champions on February 9th, 2025,” according to Sportradar. That would make Kansas City the first franchise to win the title in three consecutive seasons in the Super Bowl era, which dates to 1967.
Kansas City emerged as the champion in 7,105 instances, indicating a 14.2% probability to capture Super Bowl LVIII. That equates to about +700 in odds. FanDuel Sportsbook NY lists the Chiefs as favorites to win the Super Bowl at +500 as of Week 1.
But the San Francisco 49ers, runners-up last season, are not far behind at +600. Sportradar’s AI predicts the Niners with a 10.1% chance to win the Super Bowl. That would be +1000, much higher than the odds you can get from sportsbooks.
Other NFL teams that AI sees as having a better chance to win the 2025 Super Bowl than Buffalo are: the Detroit Lions (6.4%) and the AFC rival Cincinnati Bengals (6.3%).
AI technology has limitations in its forecasting. It of course cannot anticipate injuries and the impact of rookies and emerging players or free agent acquisitions. However, those same challenges are faced by sports betting companies, which likely rely on AI for at least some of their odds models.
AI win total predictions for 2024 NFL season
Based on 50,000 simulations by AI-driven technology from Sportradar, eight teams are predicted to have more wins than the Buffalo Bills, who are tied for ninth alongside the Green Bay Packers with 9.5 wins.
| Team Over/Under | ||
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs 11.0 | San Francisco 49ers 10.5 | Baltimore Ravens 10.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals 10.0 | Detroit Lions 9.8 | Philadelphia Eagles 9.9 |
| Houston Texans 9.4 | Green Bay Packers 9.5 | Buffalo Bills 9.5 |
| Miami Dolphins 9.1 | Dallas Cowboys 8.9 | New York Jets 9.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams 8.7 | Chicago Bears 9.1 | Atlanta Falcons 9.0 |
| Cleveland Browns 8.5 | Indianapolis Colts 8.2 | Seattle Seahawks 8.0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 8.1 | Pittsburgh Steelers 8.3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers 8.4 | New Orleans Saints 7.7 | Minnesota Vikings 7.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals 7.6 | Denver Broncos 7.2 | Washington Commanders 7.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders 7.1 | New York Giants 7.1 | Tennessee Titans 6.5 |
| New England Patriots 6.0 | Carolina Panthers 6.7 |
Buffalo has won 10 or more games in five straight seasons, the longest streak in franchise history. The last time the Bills finished with fewer than nine wins came in the 2018 season, when they finished 6-10.
It was also the last time Buffalo missed the postseason.
Bills faced with dwindling prime years for QB Josh Allen
The Bills are fortunate to have a superstar quarterback in his prime helming the team.
Josh Allen is a two-time Pro Bowler, and he’s finished in the top five in NFL Most Valuable Player voting three times in his six seasons. But the 28-year old is now entering the years of his career where he has only so much more to give on the field.
Allen plays with a rugged physicality unusual for the QB position. At 6 foot-5 and roughly 240 pounds, he presents a challenge for linebackers when he meets them after crossing the line of scrimmage. He’s rushed for at least 700 yards in a season twice and often finished among NFL leaders in yards per carry.
Despite his size, Allen accelerates quickly. Combined with his accurate throwing arm, Allen’s speed and toughness make him an elite quarterback.
Since entering the league in 2018, Allen has rewritten franchise records. Aside from owning the top mark for rushing yards by a QB (763), he also ranks third in career pass yards (22,703) and third in passing TDs (167).
But Buffalo has yet to reach the Super Bowl with Allen, and the years are starting to slip away.
