cme prediction markets (2026)
CME prediction markets refer to event-based futures contracts listed by CME Group, the Chicago-based derivatives exchange best known for commodity, interest rate and equity index futures. These contracts let traders take positions on the outcome of specific events, such as Federal Reserve rate decisions, election results, or sports tournaments, rather than on the price of a physical good or financial instrument. CME entered this space through a 2025 partnership with FanDuel, and the arrangement has already produced friction over how far “prediction markets” should extend into sports betting territory.
What counts as a CME prediction market
A prediction market contract pays out based on whether a defined event happens. CME’s version sits inside its existing regulatory framework as a designated contract market (DCM), overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That’s a different legal path than Kalshi or Polymarket took, though all three now compete for the same trading volume.
The contracts CME has self-certified or had certified by the CFTC include wagers tied to:
- Tennis tournament outcomes
- Golf tournament outcomes
- College football games
- Macro and financial events, such as Fed policy moves
Sports-linked contracts have generated the overwhelming majority of trading activity. On one day in late 2025, more than 99% of the notional volume flowing through CME’s prediction market exchange came from sports betting, not financial or economic event contracts.
How CME got into prediction markets
CME didn’t invent this category. Kalshi and other CFTC-registered exchanges built the modern prediction market model first, listing contracts on elections, weather and cultural events years before CME entered. CME’s move came through a joint venture with FanDuel, structured as FanDuel Prediction Markets Holdings LLC.
CME put up $10.2 million in cash for a 51% stake in that entity, according to SEC filings. The joint venture launched a consumer-facing app, FanDuel Predicts, in December, giving CME access to FanDuel’s roughly 12 million registered U.S. users. CME President Lynne Fitzpatrick described the goal as letting a new set of users “express their views” on markets and events through a familiar consumer app rather than a traditional brokerage account.
Notably, sports wasn’t part of the original plan the two companies outlined in August. By the December launch, sports contracts were front and center, a shift that set up the tension that followed.
From pork bellies to prediction contracts
CME’s move into event contracts fits a pattern the exchange has repeated for over a century. The Chicago Board of Trade, which CME acquired in 2007, launched the first standardized futures contracts in 1865 on corn, wheat and oats, replacing informal forward agreements with defined terms for quantity, grade, delivery and settlement.
CME itself started with butter and egg contracts, then built its early business around livestock, with frozen pork bellies as its first major futures product. The next big shift came in May 1972, when CME launched seven currency futures contracts, giving banks and corporations a way to hedge foreign exchange risk. Interest rate and gold futures followed.
The real turning point was cash settlement, starting with the 3-month Eurodollar contract. Cash settlement meant a contract no longer needed a physical good behind it, which opened the door to stock index futures, volatility products, and eventually Bitcoin futures in 2017. Each step moved CME further from physical delivery and closer to trading pure outcomes, which makes event contracts a logical, if still awkward, next step.
CME’s public conflict over sports contracts
CME leadership has openly questioned the sports side of its own prediction market business. On a late-2025 earnings call, CEO Terry Duffy called many sports-related prediction contracts “gambling” and said he expects legal challenges to reach the Supreme Court. He specifically flagged small parlays and combo bets as vulnerable to manipulation, arguing “those are not markets, those are gambling.”
Duffy’s comments came less than a day after the CFTC certified three CME wager types: tennis, golf and college football contracts. Fitzpatrick, set to succeed Duffy as CEO, said CME wants to be “very careful” about how far it goes with sports event contracts.
Duffy also raised concerns about affiliated market makers, where a company with equity in a prediction market also trades against its own customers through an affiliated desk. FanDuel does this within the joint venture and has described market making as a revenue opportunity in its own right. Duffy said that structure raises “credibility issues,” even though CME continues to process FanDuel’s sports-related volume through the same joint venture.
CME has also sued the CFTC over a separate issue: the agency’s decision to let Kalshi offer perpetual futures contracts, which have no expiration date and function differently from CME’s traditional fixed-term contracts.
How to access CME prediction markets
There are two practical entry points right now:
- FanDuel Predicts: the consumer app built through the CME/FanDuel joint venture, aimed at retail users already familiar with FanDuel’s sportsbook and daily fantasy products.
- CME Globex: CME’s institutional electronic trading platform, accessed through a futures commission merchant (FCM) or registered broker, for traders who want direct exposure to CME-listed event contracts alongside standard futures and options.
Contract specifications, margin requirements and settlement rules for each event contract are published on CME’s website before listing, the same disclosure process CME uses for its commodity and financial futures.
What to watch next
Three things will shape how far CME prediction markets expand:
- Whether the CFTC tightens or loosens its stance on sports-linked event contracts and parlay-style “combos.”
- The outcome of CME’s litigation against the CFTC over Kalshi’s perpetual futures structure.
- Whether CME scales back its own sports contracts even as FanDuel Predicts keeps sports as its primary draw for users.
Anyone trading these contracts should check CME’s contract certification notices directly, since the product list and rules are changing faster than in CME’s traditional futures lines.
