webull prediction markets (2026)
Webull prediction markets let self-directed investors trade “event contracts” on the outcome of real-world events, from sports games to Fed rate decisions to crypto price levels, through a partnership with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Instead of placing a sports bet or buying a stock, you’re buying a contract tied to a yes/no question that settles at $1 or $0 when the event resolves.
What are event contracts on Webull?
Event contracts are binary financial instruments. Each one asks a specific question, such as “Will the Fed cut rates in December?” or “Will Team A win the Super Bowl?” You buy “Yes” or “No” shares at a price between $0.01 and $0.99. If your side is correct at expiration, the contract pays out $1. If it’s wrong, it pays $0.
The price you pay reflects the market’s implied probability. A “Yes” contract trading at $0.65 implies the market thinks there’s roughly a 65% chance the event happens. Because these are cleared swaps and derivatives products regulated by the CFTC (rather than sportsbook wagers), they trade through Webull Financial LLC and Webull Futures LLC infrastructure, tied to Kalshi’s exchange.
Categories of contracts
- Sports, game outcomes, including major events like NFL playoff games and the Super Bowl
- Economic indicators, Fed rate decisions, inflation reports, jobs numbers
- Cryptocurrency, price thresholds for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other tokens, often on an hourly basis
- Indexes, short-term, hourly contracts tied to major stock indexes
- Culture and current events, award shows, elections, and other publicly tracked outcomes
How Webull prediction markets differ from sports betting
The mechanics look similar to a bet, but the structure isn’t. A few practical differences:
- You can exit early. Positions can be sold before the event resolves, locking in a gain or cutting a loss based on the current market price, not just the final outcome.
- Pricing moves with sentiment. As news breaks or odds shift, contract prices move in real time, similar to how an option or futures contract reprices.
- No leverage. Buying a “Yes” contract at $0.50 costs $0.50 per contract. There’s no margin multiplier working against you the way there can be with options or futures.
- Regulatory oversight. Contracts trade on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, rather than through a state-licensed sportsbook.
How to trade event contracts on Webull
- Open or log into a Webull brokerage account.
- Submit an application for Event Contract access (this is a separate approval step from standard stock or options trading).
- Deposit or maintain funds in the linked individual brokerage account to establish Event Contract buying power.
- On the mobile app, go to Markets > Events to browse available contracts.
- Select a contract, choose “Yes” or “No,” and submit a limit order.
Event Contract accounts are only available to U.S. residents, and applications go through your existing brokerage account rather than a separate signup.
Where to find contracts on the platform
Webull organizes prediction markets through a dedicated hub, sometimes referred to as the Prediction Market Hub, where sports, crypto, and economic contracts are grouped together. Hourly contracts tied to indexes or crypto prices show up alongside the options chain in a similar format, which makes them easier to scan if you already trade options on the platform.
Buying power and account mechanics
Event Contract buying power isn’t the same figure as your regular stock buying power. Webull calculates it separately:
| Account type | Buying power calculation |
|---|---|
| Cash account | Settled Cash Buying Power minus Provisional Cash |
| Margin account | Lesser of overnight or intraday buying power excess, minus Provisional Cash |
In most cases, Settled Cash Buying Power equals your settled cash balance, though it can run lower if you’re holding short positions or certain options strategies that tie up collateral.
Order types and trading hours
Webull currently restricts event contract orders to a few basics:
- Limit orders only, filled at your specified price or better
- Day orders only, no good-til-canceled option
- Buy-to-open and sell-to-close allowed; selling to open is not permitted (you can still take the opposite side by buying “No” instead of shorting “Yes”)
Trading hours vary by category. Index event contracts run 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM ET, matching regular market hours. Crypto, economic, cultural, and sports-related contracts trade 24/7, outside of scheduled maintenance windows.
Costs and fees
Webull advertises $0 commission on prediction market trades, including sports contracts tied to major events like the Super Bowl. Exchange fees still apply, charged by Kalshi as the underlying market operator rather than by Webull directly. Those fees are typically small per contract but can add up with frequent trading, so check the current fee schedule on Webull’s Event Contracts disclosures page before placing high-volume orders.
Closing or holding a position
You have two ways to exit a contract you’ve opened:
- Sell to close before expiration, realizing a gain or loss based on the difference between your entry price and the current market price.
- Hold to expiration, where the contract automatically settles at $1 if the event resolves in your favor or $0 if it doesn’t.
Risks to understand before trading
Event contracts carry a different risk profile than stocks, but the risk is real:
- Binary outcomes. A contract can go to $0 entirely if the event resolves against you, unlike a stock that rarely drops to zero overnight.
- No SIPC coverage for outcome risk. Account protections like SIPC and excess SIPC coverage protect against brokerage failure, not against losing money on a losing prediction.
- Limited order flexibility. Day-order-only and limit-order-only rules mean you can’t set a standing stop-loss the way you might with a stock.
- Fast-moving prices around news events. Contracts tied to live sports or breaking economic data can swing quickly as new information hits, and liquidity can thin out near expiration.
Is this available in your state?
Availability and specific contract categories can vary by jurisdiction, since some states restrict certain types of event-based derivatives, particularly sports-related contracts. Check the eligibility notice in your Webull app when you apply for Event Contract access, since approval is tied to your residency and account type.
Next step
If you already have a Webull brokerage account, submit the Event Contract application from within the app, fund the linked account, and review the Predict 101 materials in Webull’s Help Center before placing your first order. If you don’t have an account yet, opening a standard Webull brokerage account is the prerequisite step, since Event Contract access is layered on top of it rather than sold as a standalone product.
