predictit (2026)

PredictIt is a US-based online prediction market where traders buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of political and current events, from presidential elections to Supreme Court rulings. Share prices move between 1 cent and 99 cents based on what traders collectively think the odds of an event are, and a correct prediction pays out $1 per share.

What PredictIt Actually Is

PredictIt runs as a project of the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a not-for-profit tied to Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, and is operated day-to-day by Aristotle, Inc., a Washington, D.C.-based political data and technology company founded by John Aristotle Phillips. The site launched on November 3, 2014.

Unlike a betting site that sets its own odds, PredictIt uses a continuous double auction. For every trader betting “yes” that an event happens, someone else has to take the “no” side. Prices reflect the balance of that buying and selling, not a house-set line.

Close-up of stock market style price fluctuation graphs on a computer screen

How Trading on PredictIt Works

Every market asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will [candidate] win the [state] primary?” Each question is tied to a specific contract, and contracts are grouped into markets covering related outcomes (like all the candidates in one race).

Share prices: Priced from 1 cent to 99 cents, roughly mirroring the market’s implied probability of the event.
Buying shares: You can buy “Yes” or “No” shares in any open contract.
Payout: If your side wins, each share pays $1. If it loses, shares are worth $0.
Selling early: You don’t have to hold until the contract resolves. You can sell shares at any time before the market closes if the price has moved in your favor.

Because it’s a real-money exchange rather than a sportsbook, the price you see is set entirely by other traders’ orders, which PredictIt and its founders have argued makes the platform a forecasting tool rather than a gambling product.

Person weighing decision between two outcomes using coins on a table

Fees and Trading Limits

PredictIt covers its operating costs through two fees:

10% fee on profits: Charged only on net winnings above your original investment in a contract, not on the full payout.
5% withdrawal fee: Applied when you withdraw funds from your account.

There’s no fee just for depositing or holding money, and no fee on losing trades beyond the loss itself.

Under the terms of its CFTC no-action letter, PredictIt has historically capped individual investment at $850 per contract and limited each market to 5,000 traders. These limits were modeled on the older Iowa Electronic Markets, an academic prediction market at the University of Iowa that received similar regulatory treatment years earlier.

US Capitol building symbolizing political events and elections

Is PredictIt Legal?

PredictIt operates under a no-action letter issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in October 2014. A no-action letter isn’t full regulatory approval; it’s the CFTC saying it won’t take enforcement action against the platform as long as it stays within specific conditions, such as the trader caps and investment limits, and operates as a genuine academic research project rather than a commercial gambling operation.

That arrangement hasn’t been free of conflict. In August 2022, the CFTC directed PredictIt to shut down, saying the platform had grown beyond the scope of its original approval and no longer met the conditions of the letter. PredictIt and a group of traders sued, and a federal court issued an injunction letting the site keep operating while the case proceeded. Litigation over PredictIt’s status continued into 2024, and the platform remained live through that period, including during the 2024 election cycle.

Only US citizens can create accounts and trade on PredictIt, and users must verify their identity with a Social Security number as part of registration, a requirement tied to its regulatory structure.

Diverse group of people discussing news and analyzing data on tablets

How to Get Started

Create an account at predictit.org with an email address and basic identity details.
Verify your identity. PredictIt requires ID verification, which is standard for regulated financial-style platforms in the US.
Deposit funds. PredictIt accepts deposits via debit card or bank transfer; there is typically a minimum deposit amount.
Browse markets by category, such as the presidency, Congress, primaries, or world politics.
Place a trade by choosing “Yes” or “No” shares at the current market price, up to the per-contract investment cap.
Manage your position by holding to resolution or selling shares back into the market before the contract closes.

Digital network of interconnected data points representing market predictions

What Kinds of Markets Are on PredictIt

PredictIt’s markets skew heavily toward US politics, but the platform has expanded into related territory over the years:

Presidential elections, including primaries, nominations, and general election outcomes
Congressional races and control of the House and Senate
Gubernatorial and other state-level races
Presidential administration questions, such as cabinet appointments or specific policy actions
Polling-related contracts tied to results published by outlets like RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight
Select world politics events, such as foreign elections

PredictIt vs. Other Prediction Markets

PredictIt isn’t the only real-money forecasting platform available to US traders, and the field has grown more crowded in recent years.

Kalshi is a CFTC-registered designated contract market, meaning it operates under full regulatory approval rather than a no-action letter, and it has expanded into economic, weather, and pop-culture contracts alongside politics.
Polymarket runs on crypto and is not licensed for US retail traders, though it has attracted attention for high-volume political and current-events markets internationally.

The main practical differences for a US trader come down to legal status, trading limits, and fee structure. PredictIt’s $850 per-contract cap and 5,000-trader limit make it a smaller-stakes platform than Kalshi, which doesn’t operate under the same restrictions.

Risks and Things to Watch

Regulatory uncertainty: PredictIt’s legal status has been challenged before and could change again depending on how ongoing litigation with the CFTC resolves.
You can lose your full investment: Contracts settle at $0 if the outcome doesn’t occur, same as any binary options-style product.
Liquidity varies: Less popular markets can have wide bid-ask spreads, making it harder to exit a position at a fair price.
Fees add up: The 10% profit fee plus 5% withdrawal fee reduce net returns compared to platforms with lower fee structures.

Before committing money, check PredictIt’s current terms of service directly on predictit.org, since trading limits, fee structures, and available markets have shifted over time as the platform’s regulatory situation has evolved.

Jump To Your State