Mets With Strong Betting Value Ahead Of 2020 MLB Season

Posted By Tyler Duke on February 14, 2020 - Last Updated on April 14, 2021

Pitchers and catchers have arrived for Spring Training and odds are settling in at sportsbooks.

Here are the World Series odds for the New York Mets in 2020 at a few of the top online sportsbooks in the country for MLB betting.

DraftKings Sportsbook: +2200

FanDuel Sportsbook: +2100

Golden Nugget: +1800

888 Sport: +2200

Bet365: +2000

 

Do the Mets have betting value?

The Mets are well behind the defending champion Nationals and Braves in World Series odds at most sportsbooks.

The Phillies range from +1700 to +2100 to round out a deep National League East. It was a mostly quiet offseason in the division compared to the major moves prior to the 2019 season. Both playoff teams from the division lost their star third basemen with Anthony Rendon departing for the Angels and Josh Donaldson signing with the Twins. While both clubs signed some depth pieces and attempted to strengthen their bullpens, it’s hard to imagine either team feels it made much of an improvement overall.

The Mets, meanwhile, made a big splash early on with the acquisition of Dellin Betances. The hope of a resurgence from the 2019 struggles of Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia could give the Mets one of the most dominant bullpens in baseball. New York didn’t spend big on the rotation, though, relying on health and bounce backs from Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello.

Coming off a 46-26 second half that nearly saw the Mets make a late run at a Wild Card spot, some projections see the Mets as the favorite for the NL East. The PECOTA projections, which is a complex preseason projections model from Baseball Prospectus and created by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, give the Mets a 75.3 percent chance to make the playoffs with a record of 88-74 – one game ahead of the Nationals. Sportsbooks aren’t agreeing with that model. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Mets odds at winning the NL East at +325. That is tied with the Phillies. The Braves (+190) and Nationals (+250) are comfortably favorited coming off of postseason appearances. With the fifth highest odds in MLB to make the postseason according to PECOTA’s model, bettors who believe in the Mets second half charge and baseball projection systems could see an opportunity to make a play on a team that the general public isn’t high on currently.

 

Cy Young futures odds

The Mets will once again have a favorite for the NL Cy Young. Coming off his second consecutive Cy Young award win, Jacob deGrom is listed as the frontrunner by DraftKings to win it for a third straight time. At +300, he’s slightly ahead of Max Scherzer (+325) before a significant drop-off to Walker Buehler (+900), Jack Flaherty (+1200) and Stephen Strasburg (+1200).

deGrom took a minor step back in 2019 – though it was nearly impossible not to after his 1.70 ERA, 9.0 fWAR performance in 2018. He still led NL pitchers in fWAR and finished in second in ERA behind Hyun-Jin Ryu. His overall numbers remained impressive across the board, and the Mets giving deGrom some run support to boost his pitcher record would only help his case for voters who may still be influenced by the mostly outdated idea that pitcher wins matter.

Noah Syndergaard checks in with the 12th best odds to win the NL Cy Young. He’s coming off a healthy season of 32 starts, which matched his total from the previous two years combined. Despite a 4.28 ERA, Syndergaard was 9th among NL pitchers in fWAR.

 

MVP futures odds

National League MVP odds aren’t as kind to the Mets. deGrom has the best odds for Mets players at +3300 on DraftKings. Bur even in his near-unanimous Cy Young season in 2017, he finished fourth in MVP voting behind four position players. Pete Alonso (+4000) may be the more intriguing option after his impressive rookie of the year campaign in 2019. Hitting 53 home runs with 120 RBI, Alonso finished 11th among NL hitters in fWAR. The main factor holding him back from a potential MVP run would be his lack of upside defensively and on the basepaths compared to the group of favorites including Mookie Betts (+550), Cody Bellinger (+700), Christian Yelich (+700) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1200). The other two Mets players listed are Jeff McNeil (+8000) and Michael Conforto (+10000).

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