2023 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
The historic Kentucky Derby takes place annually at Churchill Downs in early May.
This reference page will examine the history, New York horse betting options, the road to the Derby, and handicapping variables for the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports.
The Kentucky Derby, dating back to 1875, assembles 20 of the nation’s top 3-year-old thoroughbreds. It’s also called The Run for the Roses as a nod to the garland of 554 red roses draped over the winner.
This event is the first jewel in racing’s Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
The Derby is thoroughbred racing’s signature showcase, although its $3 million purse has been eclipsed by some Breeders’ Cup races in the fall. This event has brought the sport a rich national and international audience.
In the meantime, the proliferation of mobile betting and media attention keeps the Derby in the limelight.
Best Kentucky Derby betting app in New York
Betting on the Kentucky Derby via TVG
The TVG app offers several features.
Tap “Live” and you can stream both the TVG Networks in HD, handicap and bet all on the same screen. Tap the track and race number to navigate upcoming races on the applicable network.
Other aspects include a complete redesign to put upcoming races and results in one spot. You can now filter by breed or region. Plus, get to the race you want faster with the “Up Next” slider and improved favorite tracks prominence.
On a race page, use the arrows to toggle between races or tap the drop-down, which gives you race condition info. In My Bets, tap the track to go back to the track that wager is on.
A highly functioning app enriches the tracks by enticing players and helps gamblers avoid the frustration of long betting lines that result in the occasional shutout at a live facility.
In many ways, TVG has earned the right to call itself the home of horse racing in the US. Active since 1999 and now the leading online horse betting site in the country, TVG is as regal as the sport of kings itself. Part of the FanDuel Group, which, in turn, is part of the mighty Flutter Entertainment, TVG is reputable and safe.
2022 Kentucky Derby odds and betting favorites
Post positions and morning line odds are out for this year’s derby. Zandon has been installed as the favorite at 3-1, followed by Epicenter at 7-2 and Messier at 8-1. The favorite will be running out of post 10. Here’s a look at the odds and posts for all of this year’s entrants.
|Post Position||Horse||Morning Line Odds||Trainer||Jockey|
|1||Mo Donegal||10-1||Todd Pletcher||Irad Ortiz Jr.|
|2||Happy Jack||30-1||Doug O'Neill||Rafael Bejarano|
|3||Epicenter||7-2||Steve Asmussen||Joel Rosario|
|4||Summer is Tomorrow||30-1||Bhupat Seemar||Mickael Barzalona|
|5||Smile Happy||20-1||Ken McPeek||Corey Lanerie|
|6||Messier||8-1||Tim Yakteen||John Velazquez|
|7||Crown Pride||20-1||Koichi Shintani||Christophe Lemaire|
|8||Charge It||20-1||Todd Pletcher||Luis Saez|
|9||Tiz the Bomb||30-1||Ken McPeek||Brian Hernandez Jr.|
|10||Zandon||3-1||Chad Brown||Flavien Prat|
|11||Pioneer of Medina||30-1||Todd Pletcher||Joe Bravo|
|12||Taiba||12-1||Tim Yakteen||Mike Smith|
|13||Simplification||20-1||Antonio Sano||Jose Ortiz|
|14||Barber Road||30-1||John Ortiz||Reylu Gutierrez|
|15||White Abarrio||10-1||Saffie Joseph Jr.||Tyler Gaffalione|
|16||Cyberknife||20-1||Brad Cox||Florent Geroux|
|17||Classic Causeway||30-1||Brian Lynch||Julien Leparoux|
|18||Tawny Port||30-1||Brad Cox||Ricardo Santana Jr.|
|19||Zozos||20-1||Brad Cox||Manuel Franco|
|20||Ethereal Road||30-1||D. Wayne Lukas||Luis Contreras|
|21 (AE)||Rich Strike||30-1||Eric Reed||Sonny Leon|
|22 (AE)||Rattle N Roll||30-1||Ken McPeek||James Graham|
What are the Derby preps?
The Kentucky Derby has several tiers of qualifying races, with points, to determine the 20-horse field. The following events have the most value, with 100 qualifying points to the winners and 40 points for second place.
|Louisiana Derby||March 26||Fair Grounds Race Course||$1 million|
|UAE Derby||March 26||Meydan Racecourse, Dubai||$2.5 million|
|Florida Derby||April 2||Gulfstream Park||$1 million|
|The Arkansas Derby||April 2||Oaklawn||$1 million|
|The Blue Grass||April 9||Keeneland||$1 million|
|The Santa Anita Derby||April 9||Santa Anita Park||$750,000|
|The Wood Memorial||April 9||Aqueduct||$750,000|
These events have become an excellent reference for sizing up the Kentucky Derby field. After observing the prep races and picking a Derby horse, what are the betting options?
Common Kentucky Derby bet types
There are a number of common bets when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.
- Win: As it sounds, select the top horse. Odds are reasonable for any winner in this race, given the top competition. The minimum bet is usually $2.
- Place: Choose a horse to finish second or higher. This will pay less than the win bet, but it provides a payout in the first and second slots.
- Show: Bet on a horse to finish third or higher. This pays lower than win or place, but it pays out if your horse finishes first, second or third.
- Exactas: Select the order of the top two finishers. It’s always good to box them. You’d hate to have the right two horses in the wrong order, especially in the Derby, with a 20-horse field.
- Trifectas: Pick the top three finishers in order. Wagered via straight bet, this type of bet is a box of three or more horses, or a partial wheel.
- The Box: A $1 trifecta box with three horses costs $6. Any combination of these three horses in the top three positions becomes a winning ticket.
- The Key: For the same $6, bettors can place a horse in the first spot, followed by three others in the second and third slots. For example, a $1 trifecta key with the “1” over the “2-3-4” means the 1 horse must win and any combo of the 2-3-4 in the next two slots is a winning ticket. For $12, you can take that 1 horse in the first AND second position with the other three horses.
- Superfecta: Pick the top four horses in the correct order. Same combinations as can be used for trifectas. The superfecta is often lucrative, but extremely hard to hit. The $1 Derby superfecta last year paid $7,925.80.
Other bets include Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6. These involve bettors picking the winner in three, four, five and six straight races, respectively. If you make only one selection for each race, these bets can be entered for small amounts, such as $0.50 or $2.
Seasoned players will try to expand the ticket, taking multiple entries in most of the races. The key to this strategy is finding at least one race to have a “single.” That means you make just one selection in that race.
How to handicap the Derby
Combine the recent history of the race structure and modern technology. This has resulted in favorites usually winning the Derby or running very well.
A few years back, racing officials began disregarding sprint races in the qualifiers. That means Derby horses have to prove themselves at a distance.
For the Derby, this format eliminates the “speed” horses who set a blistering early pace and occasionally drew other horses into what’s known as a “speed duel.” This weakened the frontrunners and set up other horses, usually longshots, to rally from far back and win down the stretch. No more.
Now, the eventual race winner is usually close to the lead early on, and times are slower than in the past. Favorites now run well in the Derby. Recent winners (and pre-race odds) include:
- 2014: California Chrome (5-2)
- 2015: American Pharoah (5-2)
- 2016: Nyquist (2-1)
- 2017: Always Dreaming (9-2)
- 2018: Justify (5-2)
- 2019: Maximum Security (9-2); Country House (65-1) was later awarded the victory
- 2020: Tiz the Law (3-5) was nipped in a thrilling stretch duel with Authentic (8-1)
- 2021: Mandaloun (12-1). Medina Spirit (15-1) was the initial winner and was later disqualified after a months-long investigation into doping.
First off, respect recent history. The Florida Derby winners have traditionally performed well. One possible explanation, however, is the five-week time between races, which may be ideal for some horses. In any case, this is a worthy handicapping variable.
Second, watch the prep races. You don’t even have to do this live. Simply watch a replay on YouTube. You want to evaluate the running style of the winning horse. Was he near the lead early or did he move late? Did he have an easy trip around the track or did he have to weave through a wall of horses to get top position? There is no prep race that exactly matches the 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby. It may be asking a lot from a horse that was fading at the end of a 1 1/8-mile race to improve at a longer distance.
Next, obtain a daily racing form, usually available online. This details a horse’s full history and may reveal matchups against other Derby participants.
Watching the early races on Derby day could also pay dividends. How is Churchill Downs playing that day? Are the frontrunners winning or are the winners coming from off the pace? Is there an edge on the inside, the middle or the outside of the track?
Beware the conditions. If there is a sudden downpour or rain throughout the day, all handicapping angles may become moot. Check the weather throughout the week.
Lastly, don’t put everything on one horse. The Derby is famous for horses being trapped in logjams and never finding racing room. Have a backup ticket in case your favorite horse gets what’s known in the industry as a “bad trip.”
Where to bet in NY
|Aqueduct||11000 Rockaway Blvd||Ozone Park|
|Belmont Park||2150 Hempstead Turnpike||Elmont|
|Buffalo Raceway||5600 McKinley Parkway||Hamburg|
|Finger Lakes||5857 NY-96||Farmington|
|Monticello Raceway||204 NY 17 B||Monticello|
|Saratoga Race Course||267 Union Ave||Saratoga Springs|
|Tioga Downs||2834 W. River Rd||Nichols|
|Vernon Downs||4229 Stuhlman Rd||Vernon|
|Yonkers Raceway||810 Yonkers Ave||Yonkers|
Kentucky Derby highlights
Legendary Secretariat set the Derby record in 1973 with a time of 1:59.40. Secretariat had the all-time Triple Crown run in 1973, establishing records in the Derby, the Preakness (1:53) and Belmont Stakes (2:24) that still stand nearly 50 years later.
The biggest Kentucky Derby longshot win came in 1913, when Donerail paid out at 91-1 odds.
The highest attendance ever was in 2015, with 170,513 people.
Thirteen horses have gone on from the Kentucky Derby to win the Triple Crown. They are:
|Sir Barton (1919)|
|Gallant Fox (1930)|
|War Admiral (1937)|
|Count Fleet (1943)|
|Seattle Slew (1977)|
|American Pharoah (2015)|
The last two Triple Crown champions have been led by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. He is tied with Ben Jones for most Derby wins (six) and will likely have horses entered again this year.
Kentucky Derby FAQ
Yes. The TVG horse betting app provides an option for New York bettors to wager on the Derby, and there are other horse betting apps to choose from, as well.
NBC is the broadcast home for the Kentucky Derby. You can catch the main race and other races there, while NBCSN will also chime in with coverage of the preliminaries. For streaming, NBC Sports provides coverage online and via its app.
Approximately two minutes.
Nearly $1 million, courtesy of the era of superfecta payouts for the top four finishing spots and a longshot race for the ages. In 2005, Giacomo prevailed at 50-1, followed by Closing Argument at 71-1 and Afleet Alex at 9-2. Don’t Get Mad completed the superfecta at 29-1. The ticket paid an unbelievable $864,000 for the $2 superfecta, still the largest Derby payout ever.
Barring any late changes, the winning connections earn $1.86 million, or 62% of the $3 million total purse. Second place is $600,000 Third place is $300,000.