coalition for prediction markets (2026)
The Coalition for Prediction Markets is an industry advocacy group formed to defend federal oversight of prediction markets and push back against state gambling regulators trying to shut them down or force them into state-by-state licensing. It represents exchanges, brokers, and policy advisors who argue that prediction markets are financial instruments regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not casino-style gambling products subject to state gaming law.
What the coalition actually does
The group operates as a lobbying and public-messaging organization, not an exchange itself. It doesn’t list prices or take trades. Its work centers on three things: shaping the policy debate in Washington and in state capitals, coordinating public statements when a state regulator moves against a member exchange, and building relationships with lawmakers who sit on committees overseeing derivatives markets and financial services.
Its site frames the current fight as a jurisdictional turf war: federal law already covers these markets through the CFTC, but several state casino and gaming regulators have issued cease-and-desist letters or opened enforcement actions against platforms like Kalshi, arguing that event contracts tied to sports outcomes amount to unlicensed sports betting.
The core argument
The coalition’s position rests on a straightforward legal claim: prediction markets trade “event contracts,” a category of derivative explicitly authorized under the Commodity Exchange Act and supervised by the CFTC. Because federal law already occupies this space, the coalition argues state gambling statutes shouldn’t apply, even when the underlying event is a football game or an election.
State regulators in places like New Jersey, Nevada, and Illinois have pushed back, saying a contract that pays out based on which team wins a game is functionally a sports bet regardless of what federal wrapper it’s placed in. That disagreement is now playing out in federal courts, with rulings so far going in different directions depending on the circuit.
Who leads the coalition
The coalition’s public leadership draws heavily from former members of Congress and industry veterans rather than career trade-association staff, which signals how much of this fight is being waged in legislative and regulatory channels rather than in courtrooms alone.
- Sean Patrick Maloney serves as president. Maloney is a former Democratic congressman from New York who previously chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
- Patrick McHenry acts as a senior advisor. McHenry is a former Republican congressman from North Carolina who chaired the House Financial Services Committee, giving him direct experience with the committee that oversees CFTC jurisdiction.
- Sara Slane sits on the board and brings a background tied to Kalshi, one of the largest CFTC-regulated prediction market exchanges.
- Matt David also sits on the board, representing Crypto.com’s interest in the space as exchanges expand into event contracts alongside crypto trading.
The bipartisan makeup of the leadership team is deliberate. By pairing a former Democratic leadership-adjacent congressman with a former Republican committee chairman, the coalition positions itself as a cross-aisle effort rather than one tied to a single party’s deregulatory agenda.
Why this fight matters to the industry
Prediction markets let people trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events: elections, economic data releases, award shows, and increasingly, sports. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket (which operates differently, outside full CFTC registration in some cases) have grown quickly, drawing both retail interest and scrutiny.
The coalition argues that without a single, consistent federal standard, the industry faces:
- A patchwork of conflicting state rules. An exchange legal to use in one state could face a cease-and-desist letter in another for the exact same contract.
- Compliance costs that favor large incumbents. Navigating dozens of different state gaming frameworks is expensive, which the coalition says could squeeze out smaller entrants.
- Consumer confusion. Traders may not know whether a platform is currently accessible in their state, or why access changes overnight after a regulatory order.
The counterargument from states
State gaming regulators and traditional casino and sports betting operators see this differently. Their position: sports-outcome contracts look, function, and pay out exactly like a sports bet, and letting a federal derivatives regulator sidestep decades of state-licensed gambling law creates an unregulated backdoor into sports wagering, complete with none of the state-level consumer protections, problem-gambling funding, or tax revenue that licensed sportsbooks provide.
That tension is why several state attorneys general and gaming commissions have targeted Kalshi specifically, and why the coalition’s messaging leans so heavily on the idea of “regulatory capture,” casting state action as protectionism for incumbent casino and sportsbook interests rather than genuine consumer protection.
Who the coalition represents
The coalition describes its membership as a mix of exchanges, brokers, and advocates, with Kalshi and Crypto.com’s involvement visible through board representation. It positions itself as speaking for the broader prediction market industry rather than any single company, though its funding and messaging closely track the interests of CFTC-registered exchanges facing state enforcement actions.
What to watch next
- Federal court rulings on whether state gaming law can reach CFTC-regulated event contracts, since appellate outcomes will likely shape whether Congress feels pressure to legislate a clear jurisdictional line.
- Congressional action on CFTC reauthorization or standalone legislation addressing event contracts, an area where McHenry’s committee ties give the coalition a direct line to sponsors.
- State-by-state enforcement**, since new cease-and-desist letters or licensing demands in additional states would test how far the coalition’s federal-preemption argument can stretch in practice.
Anyone tracking a specific exchange’s legal status in their state should check that state’s gaming commission website directly, since coalition statements reflect the industry’s position rather than a neutral summary of pending litigation.
Related reading
- Prediction markets, gaming lobby boost 2026 spending amid Congress scrutiny
- Congress Weighs Rules for Sports Prediction Markets Like Kalshi
- New York Moves To Control Prediction Market Firms
- Sports Betting Alliance Has No Formal Position on Prediction Markets
