Super Bowl MVP odds see some of the heaviest wagering for the big game. Why? The Super Bowl MVP goes to the consensus best player in the NFL’s biggest game, and all NFL bettors love to think they know who it’ll be.
If Tom Brady is in the game, betting on him may be a good idea. He’s won it a record five times, after all. But what if Brady and the Bucs aren’t in the Super Bowl? Here’s a look at the latest NFL Super Bowl MVP odds and betting trends to keep in mind.
DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL, making its sportsbook app one that you may want to have loaded and ready for the Super Bowl. DraftKings has access to official league data and Next Gen Stats content, giving it an edge in setting Super Bowl MVP betting odds and adjusting those odds throughout the game.
DraftKings also is among the sportsbooks with the most NFL betting odds available, including live Simplebet micro-markets available during the Super Bowl. Finally, DraftKings will offer a variety of Super Bowl odds boosts and promos, including for betting on the Super Bowl MVP award.
Oddsmakers look at two specific things when setting Super Bowl MVP odds:
They come up with the probability of each and set the odds accordingly.
Since a QB has won 30 MVP awards in 55 Super Bowls, oddsmakers almost always start with the two starting QBs. The starting QB on the team that’s favored to win the Super Bowl will almost always be the favorite to win the MVP. Particularly if he’s a big name who’s won a Super Bowl, Super Bowl MVP or NFL MVP previously.
The lone exceptions are heavy favorites that rely almost exclusively on the defense to win, or teams that run the ball a lot. Star running backs and, in rare cases, standout defensive players can be the Super Bowl MVP favorites.
Next, you’ve got the underdog QB and the top skill players, including running backs and receivers. The better the player, the lower the odds, with true skill position superstars who have made noise in the playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl offering the lowest of the low odds.
It is difficult to predict when the Super Bowl MVP winner will come from the defensive side of the ball. It’s only happened seven times. When it does happen, it’s often a defensive star on a team that has relied heavily on the defense to win all year. Or, a player who has an outstanding game with multiple interceptions or fumble recoveries and possibly even scores.
Predicting that kind of performance is almost impossible, which is why the sportsbook odds remain long on most defensive players.
The live Super Bowl MVP market can be a lively one, as the odds change alongside the action in the game. The odds will shrink on a QB with every TD toss, especially if he looks to be leading his team to a blowout win. They’ll also tighten on a running back if it’s clear he is grinding his team to a win or when a receiver is having an outstanding and clearly impactful game.
In a close game, the odds to win Super Bowl MVP will shift around with every score, turnover or big play. They’ll contract on players putting together big statistical days and widen on those who are seemingly out of it. Just be aware that things can hinge on one big play in a tight game, and the Super Bowl MVP could end up being the player who makes that play. Predicting who that will be is going to prove difficult and can be the difference between winning big in the Super Bowl MVP prop betting market and not.
Here are nine Super Bowl MVP facts and trends to consider when thinking about your bets:
There will be no shortage of Super Bowl odds available at New York sportsbooks beyond betting on the MVP. Here are some examples of Super Bowl props you could be able to bet on:
A panel of 16 writers and broadcasters will vote on who wins the Super Bowl MVP. Plus, fans can vote electronically. Media ballots count for 80%, and the public counts for the other 20%.
QB Tom Brady has won a record five Super Bowl MVPs, including last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It should come as no surprise, then, that the New England Patriots have won the most Super Bowl MVP awards, as Brady won four with the Pats, and they have a total of six.
Von Miller winning the MVP for Super Bowl 50 may be the most controversial pick in recent years. He was dominant defensively with 2.5 sacks, but he did not score, get an interception or recover a fumble. Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman also didn’t score when he won the MVP of Super Bowl LIII. On the other hand, Edelman’s 10 catches for 141 yards were MVP-like numbers.
Tom Brady was truly dominant, going 37-of-50 for 328 yards and four TDs in winning the Super Bowl XLIX MVP. Peyton Manning was much less convincing, throwing for 247 yards and just 1 TD to win the award as an Indianapolis Colt in Super Bowl XLI.
If you wait for a Super Bowl MVP candidate to separate himself from the pack during the game, you’re going to have to lay a big number to win a small one. The truth is, it’s probably best to bet on your favorites as soon as the Super Bowl matchup is set. For most players, the odds will never be better … unless the eventual Super Bowl MVP winner has a terrible first half, driving the odds down, and is then responsible for a massive comeback in the second half.